Perception of climate variability, information use and strategies of the agents in front of risk. Characterizing mental models in decision-making of agriculturalists from Argentine pampas

Abstract

This article analyzes the elements that are considered by Pampean producers when making production decisions considering the climate as a factor. The article focuses on how producers perceive climate variability and on the type of information they manage when it comes to mid-term perspectives. During 2005, interviews were held with 60 producers, who were selected from two different zones of the Pampa region with different physical characteristics, thirty of them belonging to the central humid pampas in Buenos Aires province and the other thirty belonging toborder semiarid pampas located at Cordoba province. The results of the analysis help characterize the mental models behind the decision-making process in the individuals' perceptions, bearing in mind that their activity entails exposure to risk. The research's main objective is to propose communication measures that may help improve the use of climate forecasts by the social agents, assuming this is an available tool with significant potential to provide a more scientific support to the procedures of the production agents and to -improve economic earnings performance.